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Thinking fresh thoughts

The population of the segment
x the percentage who buy already
x the average sale in pounds
x the average frequency
x your expected share
= Your potential revenue
For example, your research shows that there are 73 corner shops within a 50-mile radius of your premises. When you call them, you find that only 56 sell muffins at the moment, and on average £550-worth a week. Currently, they are supplied by four other bakeries. You have a good idea what their cakes are like so you know what the corner shops are buying.

But how do you gauge what your share might be? Well, you could say that the other bakeries have roughly 25% each, and all things being equal you could end up with a 20% share. However, being new on the scene, you might expect half that to begin with - ie 10%.

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